Monday, June 13, 2016

China’s slowdown and Turkey’s window of opportunity

GÜVEN SAK 

HURRIYET DAILY - MAY 20, 2016

China is changing, and the world feels the shockwaves, far and wide. This process hurts the Turkish economy, but much less than other emerging economies. I hear lots of complaining in Ankara and Istanbul, but I think if Turkey plays its cards well, the benefits could outweigh the costs.
Here is the opportunity: The change is not only about the declining growth rate of the Chinese economy, but also about its shift away from low-cost manufacturing and exports. A qualitative shift is also happening, noted Nicholas Stern and Fergus Green of the London School of Economics this March. China’s energy demand is declining together with its demand for raw material imports. So the country is changing its industrialization strategy, and that has consequences: Crude oil? Iron ore? Soya? Their prices are dropping faster than a bad guy in a Bruce Lee flick - and are likely to stay down.

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