By Jeffrey S. Payne | Research Fellow/Academic Affairs Manager - National Defense University's Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies
MEI | Aug 11, 2016
China’s One Belt, One Road (OBOR) initiative is both a reflection of
China’s growing need for deeper engagement with the regions to its west
and a grander vision for Chinese foreign policy. OBOR is an ambitious
plan for integrating the provinces of China, especially underdeveloped
ones in the west and south of the country, with Eurasia through
intensified trade, telecommunication, and infrastructure. The plan faces
immense challenges. Parts of Eurasia remain unstable, the region
attracts major powers whose interests regularly diverge, and political
challenges are rampant. Yet, the potential payoffs for both China and
Eurasia if OBOR succeeds are substantial. In the Gulf region, OBOR’s
impact is intended to maximize commerce among all actors, but its impact
is likely to extend beyond economics.[1] OBOR
does not provide an equal opportunity for all states, and, in the case
of the Gulf, it is Iran that will likely benefit over all others. The
states of the G.C.C. also factor in to Beijing’s plan, just not to the
same degree―and that is the problem. This imbalance will have political
ramifications for the Gulf, and as OBOR progresses, the G.C.C. will need
to measure its potential economic gains against the political risks
associated with China’s efforts. There is a way for the states of the
G.C.C. to effectively address this developing regional environment, and
that is to mirror China by engaging eastward. Using OBOR and existing
comparative advantages will allow the states of the G.C.C. to balance
Iran’s potential windfall.
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