REGISTAN
Kendrick Kuo
Chinese foreign policy toward Central Asia and the Muslim world at
large remains a niche subject that only concerns a subset of
researchers. In the popular imagination, China is solely an East Asian
power. But as the Sino-American relationship continues to evolve,
through both frictions and convergence of interests, Central Asia
promises to be an important area of cooperation. My point is not that
China is the primary reason the U.S. should remain interested in Central
Asian states, but consideration of Sino-American relations should play a
role in shaping continued U.S. engagement in the broader region.
China’s pivot to Central Asia
Any consideration of Beijing’s policies toward Central Asia must
examine the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). There are signs
that China’s military cooperation with Central Asian countries is
waning. Last week, the SCO held its annual military exercises in
Kazakhstan. Over at Eurasia.net, Joshua Kucera observes several aspects
of the exercise that indicate diminished emphasis placed on the SCO’s
military initiatives. Only three states participated and the number of
troops involved seems to be significantly reduced.
China’s primary instrument in Central Asia at this point is economic
ties. Beijing’s influence on Central Asian states’ foreign policies
persists due to its economic clout. In 2010, Chinese foreign direct
investment (FDI) stock in Kazakhstan reached $1.59 billion, ranking
fourteenth among top outbound destinations. The United States receives
about $4.9 billion in FDI stock, ranking eighth. Turkmenistan also
receives considerable FDI flows, adding up to $450.51 million, ranking
fifteenth in top FDI flow destinations, compared to the United States’
$1.3 billion. Recently, in May 2013, Tajikistan President Emomalii
Rahmon met with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Chinese state-owned
enterprise (SOE) heads on an official state visit. He left Beijing with
multi-million dollar investment projects in sectors such as
infrastructure, banking, and energy. They also agreed on technical
cooperation to the tune of $200 million.
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