Near East Center for Strategic Engagement - July 14, 2015
Since the beginning of talks with Iran concerning its nuclear
program, the NEC-SE has been the leading voice in asserting that the
negotiations and any resulting deal were tied to the economic realities
facing both the U.S. and China.
Today the U.S. and Iran concluded a long-term economic agreement that
has shifted the paradigm in the U.S. policy from containment to
economic partnership with Iran and a strategic economic relationship
with China. As a result, the U.S. will gain access to Iranian oil and
other markets and in doing so provide Iran with a steady buyer for its
crude and provide capital investment in other sectors of its economy.
Although this arrangement will benefit both nations, Iran will get
the better of it in the form of a revitalized economy and, by extension,
enhanced political and military power. This support will come from
Russia but more importantly will help China to stabilize its economy and
open the markets of the Middle East for weapon sales for Chinas
expanding weapons sale capability in the Middle East through Iranian
markets. For this reason, the deal with Iran will affect America’s
relationship with the Sunni states of the Middle East as well as with
its closest ally in the region, Israel who is currently reliant on
having to choose between China and other possible enduring partners
within the Middle East. Israel is now in a place that it has to choose
China over any other economic power who was hoping to expand their
market footprints within the region.
Some will argue that this is not an economic agreement. But that begs
the question: how is it that Iran could negotiate across the the table
with the I-5 nations over a weapon that it never possessed and would not
possess in the foreseeable future if the status quo of sanctions plus
the threat of military action against its nuclear facilities were to
remain place?
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