Friday, February 19, 2016

Situating the GCC in China's Transforming Roles in Asia

By Tim Niblock

Emeritus Professor of Middle East Politics - Institute of Arab and Islamic Studies - University of Exeter - UK

MEI | Feb 16, 2016

As has been widely acknowledged, the balance of the GCC’s external trade has changed fundamentally over the past decade. China and India have been the major beneficiaries of the shift. The significance of the change can be best understood within the context of the Gulf region’s long-term economic and political connections. For the two centuries preceding 2013, the bulk of Gulf trade was with Western countries.[1] Trade with Japan became important from the 1970s onwards, so much so, that Japan became the second largest trading partner for the Gulf region from the late 1970s until 2011.[2]
In 2013, for the first time, China became the largest trading partner of the Gulf region (taking all eight Gulf countries together). Trade with the European Union (EU) was pushed into second position, with India taking the third position. Table 1 provides data on how the Gulf’s trading pattern have changed from 1990—when China and India were relatively marginal in Gulf trade—through to 2013 which was the first year in which China became the leading trading partner of the 8 Gulf states. Figures for 2014 show China pulling even further ahead, with China’s total standing at $255 billion, and the European Union’s at $232 billion.[3]
The European Union remains at present the largest trading partner of the GCC, but current rates of trade growth—and the growing demand for imported Gulf oil in China and India—mean that the China’s trade is likely to overtake that of the European Union by 2020. A study of likely GCC trading developments undertaken by the Economist Intelligence Unit in 2014 states:

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